Real Sociedad and Levante have routes to hurt each other once the first defensive line is passed. AZ and Twente can each move the ball into wide or central shooting positions, though their recent large scores came in very different opposition settings. In both matches, the number of clean follow-up contacts matters more than the headline shot count.
Sociedad use Oyarzabal between lines to release Gómez or Guedes, while Levante can press a loose first pass through Requena and Romero and attack a rebound. Sociedad's Odriozola and Beitia remain out after missing Norway; Levante's Dela and Bardeli remain out after missing Athletic, while Etta Eyong played a shorter scoring appearance and supplies a later receiver. Sociedad's shorter recovery and Levante's second-ball attack can keep both ends active after the first goal draws the trailing side forward. That's why I'm siding with goals in the Sociedad–Levante match.
AZ's Maikuma and Patati can find Daal or Meerdink, while Twente seek van Rooij and Weghorst with Van den Belt arriving centrally. AZ's Thursday four goals came from a free kick, a right-side move, a giveaway and late changes despite modest chance quality; Twente's big Gibraltar output came against weaker resistance than Utrecht. AZ's Hornkamp, Smit and Resink remain out after missing both recent games; Twente's absent goalkeeper and centre backs already had a shared replacement unit in those games. Both have had a short European turnaround, and the official wind warning adds friction to long deliveries. That's why I'm siding with a contained goal total in AZ–Twente.
