Rayo's pressure should test how Elche replace an important midfield link. Elche have a direct route behind Rayo's advanced defenders as well as a compact shape when they have to defend. Rayo's recent home results came at another ground, and its lead protection has allowed opponents back into matches. This looks like a contest decided by the first clean pass out of pressure and the next box reception.
Rayo can win the ball high through Ciss and feed De Frutos or Camello quickly, as it did in strong opening spells against Espanyol and Getafe. But Alavés and Espanyol both found chances against its nominal home defense, and Getafe equalised after Rayo had led. Elche can use Revivo's direct delivery to Niño or Valera behind Balliu, then defend in a compact five to make Rayo work around the outside.
Aguado's injury removes Elche's usual midfield link; Redondo replaced him at Villarreal and is available. Rayo's Ciss is available after his appeal, while Batalla and Luiz Felipe missed the previous match. Elche's first pass is the opening test, followed by whether Rayo can turn possession into repeat clear finishes. That's why I'm siding with Elche to stay in this match.
