Rayo's press should bring the game into Celta's half, but it also leaves space behind the first challenge. Celta have shown they can release a runner into that space and build a second attack from the right. The contest turns on whether Rayo's wide pressure becomes clean finishing before Celta find those exits.
De Frutos and Balliu can make Rayo's right side busy, with Álvaro García arriving across the box. Yet Rayo have recently turned heavy shot volume into only one goal, while Celta found Pablo Durán behind Betis and used Javi Rodríguez for both a final pass and a finish against Alavés.
Rayo are without suspended Ciss after his full outing against Elche, and Rațiu missed the last two matches. Celta's traveling group includes Durán, Jutglà, Rodríguez, Álvarez and Radu; their listed central absences were already present against Betis. Rayo also come off a long cup tie, while Celta had a longer recovery period.
Rayo should press and deliver early. Once Celta clear that first wave, Durán's run and Rodríguez's follow-up can turn a midfield escape into the decisive chance. That's why I'm siding with Celta.
