Two Champions League Elite games where both teams have a real way into the other's box, and both away sides arrive rotated after a short turnaround and a flight. Beijing bring fresh runners against a Jeonbuk build-up their own coach expects to be looser, and Jeonbuk bring crosses against a Beijing defence that lets teams shoot. In Ratchaburi, a Kashiwa side that keeps creating meets a home side that has to chase. None of these routes cancels the others out.
Beijing under Montgomery are a different team in Asia. Their ACL-only forwards, Akolo, Nkololo and Dudziak, punish loose passing at the back: against a rotated Pohang, two goals came straight from regains in Pohang's half. Those players sat out the Henan game and the coach says they are fresh. Beijing also give up shots, though: 16 at Buriram and 15 at Henan, where they were three down at half-time. Fabio is out, but they have already scored five without him.
Jeonbuk under Jung Jung-yong play direct in this competition, with wide crosses for Orobo and Italo carrying the ball from the left. A rotated Jeonbuk side created more than Kobe did away from home. Jung said publicly that rotation will cost his team some organisation. Beijing's runners against that changed back line is the first route, and Jeonbuk's crosses against Beijing's centre-backs is the second. Both teams have scored in nine of their last ten, and neither group position makes a draw attractive.
If Beijing score first, Jeonbuk have to come out and the game stays open. If Jeonbuk score first, Beijing push on against tiring legs. I'm siding with goals in this one.
In Ratchaburi, Kashiwa under Ricardo Rodriguez hold the ball and score through runners arriving in the box. That does not depend on any of their absent players, and they have kept scoring with rotated sides. Ratchaburi are not a deep block: they had more of the ball in both ACL games and left space behind. Their centre-back Insua is doubtful, and midfielder Vieira has left the club.
The other half of the picture is Kashiwa's defence. They allowed 25 shots at Kashima and lost at Jeonbuk to a counter. They arrive on two days' rest after a flight, with a changed XI and a reserve goalkeeper. Ratchaburi made four goals at home against Shanghai through direct forwards, a substitute striker and corners, and with no points yet they have to go for it.
Kashiwa should find the net. Ratchaburi's transitions and set pieces against that tired back line should give them a goal too. That's why I'm siding with both teams to find the net in this match.
