Two very different games in one slip. In Orlando, the league's most open home side meets a New York City team with a stripped midfield, and Orlando's defence is missing two starters. In Commerce City, a Colorado team that is near the top of the league at home faces a Vancouver attack that has gone quiet since Muller's injury. One game should be wide open and the other tight.
Orlando City vs New York City: Orlando score freely, with 25 goals in their last ten, but they also give up a lot, around 17 shots and 2.4 xG a game. That leak is structural. Columbus had 27 shots in Orlando, and DC created plenty in the first game without Jansson and Dorsey, who are both out again. A makeshift back four now faces the runners Alonso Martínez and Agustin Ojeda.
At the other end, Griezmann and Martín Ojeda work between the lines against a NYC pivot that has lost Parks, Trewin and Moralez. NYC's low-scoring record has come against defences that do not leak like this one, at a slow tempo they will struggle to keep while chasing a wild-card place. Orlando start fast at home and keep attacking with a lead. That's why I'm siding with goals in Orlando.
Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps: the table says 1st against 9th, but Colorado built that 9th place away from home. At home they are 9-3-3, unbeaten in nine. Vancouver's season was built with Muller, and since his hamstring injury they have created about one expected goal per game, with no shots on target at St. Louis.
Colorado will have the ball at altitude, while Vancouver sit behind Cubas and Cvetkovic and look to break behind Navarro. It is their fifth straight road game, and a point costs them less than it costs Colorado. That points to a low-margin game where a draw or a home win are the likeliest results, so I'm siding with Colorado not losing at home.
