This is 20th against 21st, and the two defences give plenty away, but the attacks are a lot weaker than the league table makes them look. The part of the matchup that matters is whether Watford can score away from home at all. On recent evidence they barely create anything on the road, and they are now without two senior attackers. Norwich's own home attack has also gone quiet, so this looks like a game where one side, or both, fails to find the net.
Watford have scored once in their last five away games. Their latest trip, to Wolves, produced four shots and an expected-goals figure barely above zero, and the visit to Bristol City wasn't much better. Dionisi has ruled out Antonio, and Baah is out too, so the front line will be some mix of Doumbia, Kjerrumgaard and Boadu, with Vata and Maamma coming back in wide or creative roles. Against Darling and McConville, Watford's realistic routes are a set piece or a Norwich mistake in build-up.
At the other end, Norwich press and cross. At Charlton all three of their goals came from a won ball or a cross into Kvistgaarden. At Carrow Road, though, they've been blunt, with very little created against Portsmouth and Bolton in two of their last four home games. Toure is out until January, Maghoma came off injured at Charlton and Mattsson is a doubt in midfield, so the number ten and the control in the middle are both thinner than usual.
I expect Norwich to have most of the ball against a Watford block that sits deep. If Norwich score first, Watford have to come out, and their away record says that brings very little. They've tended to collapse after conceding rather than hit back. If it's still level at the break, Norwich's thin home creation points to a tight game that could finish goalless or one-nil to either side.
The market is pricing the shared defensive weakness and a head-to-head full of goals, but those meetings were played with different squads. What it isn't pricing is how little this Watford side creates away from home. That's why I'm siding with the idea that one of these teams, most likely Watford, leaves without scoring.
