Two matches where the chance numbers say more than the table does. In both, one side creates clearly more than it gives up, and the other side's back line is patched and leaky.
Nice against Rennes: Rennes is the high-volume team, averaging about 18 shots and 1.9 expected goals over its last nine games with stats, while allowing around 1.7. Nice creates less, about 1.1 expected goals, but concedes about 1.6 and is missing Mendy, Bombito and Abergel, with Abdi doubtful. Those absences have been there for three straight games, so they are not fresh news. Rennes are without Lepaul up front, yet Dia and Al-Tamari carry the chances. Both defences leak at roughly the same rate, so I expect an open game where Rennes keeps shooting and Nice scores from fewer, better chances. That's why I'm on plenty of goals in this one.
Elversberg against Mainz: Mainz out-shoot Elversberg by a wide margin over the longer sample, about 18 shots to 12, and Elversberg give up around 2.0 expected goals a game. Three Elversberg defenders are listed doubtful and their midfield is short of Zimmerschied. Mainz have their own problems, with Kohr out and the goalkeeper's status unclear, and both sides lost in the cup midweek. Elversberg are dangerous on counters and set pieces, but Mainz should hold more of the ball and create the better chances. That's why I'm siding with Mainz, with the draw covered.
