This matchup turns on whether repeated wide service becomes clear finishes. Newcastle built sustained pressure in the derby, while Macarthur's opener was settled by isolated dead-ball moments. The first clean passes into the forwards and the next touch inside the box should set the rhythm.
Lolley created chances throughout the derby, and Wood was repeatedly available even though his finishing lagged behind the supply. Macarthur allowed Perth regular shots on target and produced little open-play work at the other end. Grant is back in Newcastle's extended squad after missing the derby; Toure's shoulder and Macarthur's existing injuries have been checked against the opener rather than treated as fresh losses. With Newcastle's delivery likely to return in waves, I'm siding with the Jets at home.