Napoli–Bodo/Glimt has a neat tension between shot volume and the quality allowed at the other end. Napoli took 29 shots against Venezia and still failed to score; Bodo kept Dortmund to modest recorded chances in its recent win. If Bodo can make Napoli's extra attempts come from awkward positions, that volume may be less threatening than it looks. If Napoli pin Bodo back without giving up a clean exit, Bodo's own attacking numbers may be harder to carry into this match.
Our provisional records give Napoli 2.44 xG to Venezia's 0.63 in that loss. Bodo's Dortmund game was closer at 1.11 to 0.79 xG, and its recent recorded matches average 2.0 xG for and 0.9 against. Those figures describe different opponents and game states, so the live question is how the two patterns meet.
