Two different games, two different shapes. In Korea, a pair of bottom-table sides meet where neither controls the other, so the game should stay close into the second half. In the Asian cup tie in Shanghai, the visitors bring the cleaner chance quality against a home side that gives away a lot.
Mobis against KCC: both sit near the bottom of the KBL table. KCC shoot better on paper and won the first meeting this season at Mobis, hitting a hot run of threes. But KCC's point differential is worse than Mobis's, they have lost most of their road games, and they arrive with two days of rest against roughly five for Mobis. Mobis get to the line and stay level in quarter scoring, so they rarely collapse. The swing factor is KCC three-point shooting; if it cools, Mobis are right there. No lineup news was available, so this rests on results and rest. I'm siding with Mobis at home, with the cushion of a close game.
Shanghai Shenhua against Machida: Machida hold about 57 percent of the ball and put more shots on target than they allow, while Shenhua concede a lot of on-target chances, a high expected-goals-against number and several penalties this season. Shenhua's own shot volume is erratic, huge in one game and thin in the next. Machida's recent run is full of clean sheets, and they won here in February. Lineups are not known, and a league match follows, but the content gap is in shots on target and chance quality, not only volume. That's why I'm on Machida to win away.
