Gangwon win territory, not margins: they take the ball and the shot count, but the second goal rarely comes. In Ulsan, the import rule decides the shape. Mobis are down to one foreign player, and KCC can field two in the middle quarters. In both matches the structure points the same way the story should run.
Gangwon average around 61% possession and 13 shots, yet they score about a goal a game. The bluntness shows in both of their XIs: the league side had 18 shots for a 1-1 with Incheon and missed a penalty in a 1-1 at Seoul. The rotated continental side had 64% of the ball and still lost 1-2 to PPC, then drew 0-0 at Kitchee. Across their last 20 games they have won by two or more only three times.
The absences make that thinner. Hwang Mun-ki had surgery after the Seoul game and Mo Jae-hyun is doubtful with a heavy bruise, and those are two of the wide attackers who make the extra goal. Kuching press the first pass and have scored in every continental game, including one forced from a Kitchee keeper error. Gangwon's build-up has already given away cheap goals. Kuching need a win, so they will not sit deep all match. The likely band is 1-0, 1-1 or 2-1, with Gangwon on top but not running away with it. That's why I'm siding with Kuching to stay within a goal.
Mobis normally win through two imports inside, but Prim is out for six weeks with a knee ligament tear and no replacement has been registered. In the one full game without him they lost 71-91 at home to Samsung, and their coach said Bezley wore down doing all the help defence by himself. KCC bring Long and King together in the second and third quarters, with Heo Hoon running the pick-and-roll and Jang finishing inside.
The first and fourth quarters should be close, with one import each, and KCC's thin bench and late turnovers can give some points back at the end. The middle twenty minutes are where the lead gets built, and KCC already scored 97 in Ulsan earlier this season when Mobis still had Prim. That's why I'm backing KCC to win this one by a few baskets.
