Both of these games pit a size or shot-quality edge against an opponent leaning on one hot window. Minnesota without Edwards has become a big front that wins the glass, facing a Dallas side whose two creators carry everything. Phoenix's shot quality at home meets a Charlotte team that has lost its three main creators and lives on volume and offensive boards. In both, the team with the steadier unit is at home.
Minnesota has played seven games without Edwards and gone 5-2, with home margins of +26, +12 and +15 against the Clippers, Milwaukee and Utah. Gobert, Beringer and Lyles have won the boards in five of those seven games. Dallas held the glass against smaller fronts, but lost it to all three bigger fronts it met: San Antonio twice and Houston.
The main Dallas threat is Flagg and Irving, who combined for 78 against Indiana. That night came at home with 34 free-throw attempts. On the road Dallas drew only 14 and 26. Dallas is also a modest forcing team, so Minnesota's turnover habit should stay in the mid-teens rather than spiral. Expect Minnesota's size to show in the first half and Dallas to push late. That's why I'm siding with Minnesota to win at home.
Charlotte arrives without Miller, Knueppel and Schroder. In their one full game without all three they hit 23 threes against Cleveland, but their ten-game rate is under 32 percent, and they scored 80 against Boston in the other Miller-less game. They also lost all three recent road games, at Washington, Brooklyn and Detroit.
Charlotte's real strength is the glass through Kalkbrenner and Reid, but it comes with about 18 turnovers a game against a Phoenix side that forces plenty. Phoenix shoots 48 percent from the field over ten games, and its bench shooters carry the second and third quarters. The home back-to-back is eased by capped starter minutes in a blowout and a full day off. That's why I'm siding with Phoenix to win at home as well.
