Mexico come into this friendly as clear favourites, but the side that takes the field looks short of what made them dangerous at the World Cup. The two forwards who supplied seven of their ten goals there are not available, and the team has scored twice in three games under the new coach. My view turns on that: a rotated, finisher-less attack is a thin thing to lean on for a clean win, whatever the reputation says.
The last three Mexico results tell the story. Two 1-1 draws came first, and against Peru they had most of the ball and the better shot count without turning it into goals. Then came the 0-3 loss to the USA, where they started brightly and pinned the hosts back early, but the goals came from their own mistakes: a loose pass from the keeper, a back pass that was never collected, and a low ball that was not held. That is a team creating chances and giving them back, not a team being overrun.
The preview picture for this game adds more. Lozano and Mora are injured, Mateo Chavez is suspended after his red card, and the expected eleven has a goalkeeper in line for his senior debut, backup centre-backs and a 19-year-old on the wing. The coach has almost completely rotated his side in each of his first three games, so cohesion is the thing that is missing.
Chile arrive with their own problems. They have lost four of their last five and conceded eleven in those defeats, so nobody should pretend they are secure. But in the loss to the USA they hit the woodwork twice, put eight shots on target and led 2-1 before the home side came back with set pieces late. They also have a full week of rest, against three days for Mexico.
So this is a read on the match as a contest rather than a verdict on Chile. Mexico need something to go right up front, and nothing in the recent games says it will.
