Two matches where the chance numbers say goals are coming, and both defences have real holes. Neither game looks like a closed, patient affair.
Mainz against Werder Bremen: Mainz take about 18 shots a game and carry roughly 2.4 expected goals, while Bremen create about 1.4 and give up nearly 1.9. Bremen are missing three centre-backs, so crosses and second balls should keep finding space. Mainz's back three also leaks at home, so Bremen's counters get their own chances. Nine of the ten games in the shot rows had total chance quality at or above two and a half. That's why I'm leaning toward a lot of goals here.
Racing Santander against Espanyol: Racing concede a lot of chance quality, around two expected goals a game over their last ten, and at home they have scored 13 and conceded 8 in five games. Games in their building keep opening up, and I expect another one with goals at both ends. I'm backing a high-scoring game in both matches.
