Mainz have created plenty at home, but their entries have not always led to a second clean finish or a secure next defensive possession. Werder have a route back through their forward target and wide delivery. Stoke and Bristol City also hinge on the first clearance: Stoke threaten at dead balls, while Bristol look to support their striker with quicker forward play.
Mainz can find Amiri and Caci around Werder's box, yet Werder's Füllkrug, Grüll and Regeer all played in the latest match and can connect an exit after a clearance. Most names on Werder's absence list were already missing then. Weiser also supplied accurate crosses off the bench, giving the visitors another way to answer pressure. That's why I'm siding with Werder Bremen to stay close.
Bristol's Knight and Twine can bring Ballard into the game rather than leaving him alone between Stoke's centre-backs. McNally and Atkinson played the full Sheffield match together while Dickie remained out; Stoke's Bocat left the Derby match and Bombino covered his wing-back lane. Bristol created much better chances against Blackburn than the blank score suggests, while Stoke's recent goals leaned on dead balls and errors. That's why I'm siding with Bristol City.
