Machida against Shanghai Shenhua repeats the first leg: Machida's possession meets a five-man Shenhua block, and Machida's goals arrive in small numbers. Svay Rieng against Tampines is a different picture. The home side create shots on target against any shape, while the visitors' own attack has gone quiet whenever the game was not already lost. One match is about the size of the win, the other about who wins at all.
In Japan, Machida have kept eight straight clean sheets, but their group wins were 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0, and three of their last five games ended goalless. In the first leg, with a rotated front line against Shenhua's back five, Machida had 63 percent of the ball but only three shots on target. Their starting forwards had none.
Shenhua's injury news sounds bad, but the back unit that held Machida is the same one again, because Chen Jinyi was already missing last time. Machida host Hiroshima three days later in a title-race game, and the reports point to rotation again. Ratão had two shots on target in the first leg, so Shenhua carry a goal threat of their own.
I expect Machida to have the ball, maybe score from a corner second phase, and then manage the lead the way Kuroda's side usually does. That's why I'm siding with Shenhua to keep this close.
In Cambodia, Svay Rieng made five shots on target against Shenhua's block and six against this Tampines unit nine days ago, most of them inside the box. Tampines managed three shots on target at Shenhua and none against Machida with the same 5-4-1, and their coach has promised a defensive plan.
Svay Rieng have had seven days of rest against four plus travel, and the visiting coach says the pitch is bigger and softer than at home. Tampines need a broken game to create anything. Svay Rieng only need one breakthrough to win. That's why I'm siding with Svay Rieng to win at home.
