Two very different games here, and neither is a clear mismatch. In Australia, two soft defences meet: a home side that lives on bursts and counters, and a visiting side that keeps the ball but concedes plenty. In England, a low-possession home side with a decent run of results faces a visitor that creates better chances than the table suggests.
Macarthur against the Wanderers: Macarthur have scored in bunches, with most of their last ten games producing three or more goals, and they hit on the break with only around 44% of the ball. The Wanderers hold roughly 56% possession, but they give up close to five shots on target a game, and their recent results ran from a 5-2 win to a 0-0 draw. Their forward Lual is out, but he missed the previous game too, so that is already in the recent picture. I expect an open game where either side's first goal pulls the other out. That's why I'm leaning to plenty of goals.
Lincoln against Birmingham: Birmingham create more on target and carry a better expected-goals profile, while Lincoln concede lots of corners and shots on target and sit with little possession. Lincoln did beat Burnley 4-1, but that came from a high shot count they will not repeat every week. Birmingham's away output has been weaker, as the loss at Cardiff showed, so I want the draw covered. That's why I'm siding with Birmingham, with the stake back if it ends level.
