Liverpool against Arsenal looks less like a control game and more like two sides that both reach the other's box. Each team's best remaining route runs straight into the other's weakest area. In Vancouver, the table has changed the shape of the match: Seattle have to win, and Vancouver have nothing left to protect at home.
At Anfield, Liverpool under Iraola play a high line and win on volume, but they lose control early. Villarreal scored on them at the 4th and 28th minutes, once from a ball in behind. Arsenal scored exactly that way at Bayern, Odegaard finding Eze, after Saka had already gone off. With Frimpong and Bradley out, Liverpool's right-back spot is the soft area, and Araujo was taken off at half-time the last time he played there.
It also works the other way. Saliba is out, so Arsenal play a makeshift centre-back pair against Liverpool's crosses, their left wing and their set pieces. Arsenal's low goals-against figure was mostly built against weaker sides. Against top opposition they let in two at Bayern and three at Brighton. Without Saka, Arsenal create less in open play, but the ball over the top and their set pieces don't depend on him. Whoever scores first forces the other side to open up, and both teams have shown late goals in big games.
At BC Place, Vancouver are a different team from the one that travels. Their last five home games produced 5, 6, 3, 4 and 1 goals, and the visitors scored in every one. Cubas is out of midfield, and without him San Diego took 20 shots there. Seattle must chase a win, and Schmetzer has shown he sends on three attackers by the hour when his side is behind. Vancouver's next game is a full week away, and their coach says they will attack these last two matches.
That's why I'm backing goals in both: in each match, both teams have a real way to score, and the game state pushes both sides forward.
