Two matches where one side's defence is the story. In Italy, Lecce keep giving chances away while Genoa struggle to create their own. In London, the visitors control the ball and rarely concede good chances, while the hosts are stretched in midfield and at full-back.
Lecce against Genoa: Lecce concede over two goals a game across their last ten, and the chances they allow back that up even after taking out their worst single game. They now lose a centre-back to suspension, and their front line and midfield are thin with several players out. Genoa score less than a goal a game and have managed little away, and the two earlier meetings were low-scoring, so this rests mainly on Lecce's leaky back line. I expect Lecce to be open early, Genoa to wait and counter, and a late goal from tired legs on thin benches. That's why I'm on the side of goals here.
Liverpool against Arsenal: Arsenal average far more shots than they allow and have kept five clean sheets in their last ten, even through six games without Saliba. Liverpool create in bursts at home but give up more chances than Arsenal, and they are missing Ekitike and Frimpong, with Szoboszlai doubtful. Saka is out for Arsenal, though the recent sample already includes games without him. The head-to-head history is full of draws, which is why I want that outcome protected. I'm siding with Arsenal to control the game.
