Two matches where the chance numbers matter more than the table. In one, the visitors out-create a home side that gives up a lot of shots and corners. In the other, two back lines are patched up and both teams generate plenty of shots.
Lincoln against Birmingham: over their last ten games Birmingham have a small edge in expected goals, while Lincoln sit level at zero. Lincoln allow around sixteen shots and eight corners per game, and score only about one goal a game with roughly three shots on target. Their recent big win over Burnley came from very efficient finishing, not from dominance. Birmingham's missing players were already out in recent matches, so their form already includes those absences. Draws are live for both sides, so I'm siding with Birmingham in a way that returns the stake if it finishes level.
Augsburg against Freiburg: Augsburg are missing three defenders and a forward, and they have been creating and conceding a lot, about seventeen to eighteen shots each way over their recent games. Freiburg arrive after three matches in a week with two defenders in doubt, and their own back line is thin. The game should open up early, and a goal in the first half hour makes a high-scoring game much more likely. That's why I'm on the goals side here, with a small cushion if the game ends on exactly three.
