Lincoln's direct game will test Birmingham's first clearances and second balls. Birmingham's wider passing routes should bring them into the box more often. The contest looks close because Lincoln can turn a throw or diagonal into a sudden chance.
Lincoln's Burnley win showed how Coubiș can find House at the back post and how Jefferies can punish a loose clearance. Birmingham have their own clear route: Iwata's delivery and Millar's movement across Lincoln's right side produced two goals against QPR before Priske entered. Lincoln's late loss of a two-goal lead at Millwall also showed how sustained pressure can keep reaching its box.
Paik and Leonard remain out for Birmingham, but both missed the Cardiff game and Iwata and Millar still offer the main connection. Priske missed Cardiff and is only a possible later contributor; Birmingham do not need to build the attack around a projected start from him. Lincoln's Bradley left the Burnley game injured, while Melia and Darikwa were already absent from that side.
Lincoln should seek House and Ladefoged early from throws and diagonals. Birmingham can keep returning the ball through Millar, Cochrane and Iwata, with further supply from their substitutes as the game stretches. That's why I'm siding with Birmingham to find and protect the decisive goal.
