Both teams turn up in Gran Canaria with their attacks badly stripped. Valladolid have left their main creator, Luis Chacon, out of the squad along with three other forwards. Las Palmas have lost Sandro, Ale Garcia and Viti up front, and Inaki Gonzalez is suspended. My read is a tight, low-chance game where at least one of these two sides finds it hard to score.
Start with Valladolid away from home. In their last five road games they scored twice, and they drew blanks at Eibar, Mallorca and Almeria. Their expected goals in two of those defeats were 0.46 and 0.67. Now they're without Chacon, Van Duiven, Ito and Tay Abed. That's most of the attacking line they've used this season.
Las Palmas at home haven't been much livelier. Their recent games in Gran Canaria finished 0-0 with Leganes, 0-1 against Malaga, 1-2 against Burgos and 2-1 against Albacete. Against Burgos and Leganes they produced only 0.53 and 0.28 in expected goals. They haven't won at home since the opening day, and the local press counts up to eleven players unavailable.
Ruben de la Barrera is reshuffling, moving Enzo Loiodice back into midfield to cover gaps there. That's a coach patching holes, not one adding firepower. Fran Escriba says his side won't go there just to defend, but he's working with a much thinner forward line than usual.
Put those two depleted attacks together, and a game where one side ends up with nothing looks like the natural way this one plays out.
