Both of these games come down to depth rather than a single big edge: Kashima's steadier chance creation against a home side with a thin profile, and a baseball series where the bullpens decide more than the starters.
Kashima have averaged about 2.2 expected goals for and 1.0 against across their last nine games with data, with well over five shots on target per game, and they beat Pohang 3-0 with six on target to none. Buriram's three group games show about 0.7 expected goals for and 2.1 against. Buriram are rested and at home, and their one home game was close, so this is not a mismatch. Two Kashima defenders are flagged as doubtful, but replacements are listed. I expect Kashima to hold the ball and find a goal or two, and that's why I'm siding with them to win.
In the Korean Series, KT lead 1-0 after an 8-7 win. The two starters look level, so the lean comes from the bullpens. Samsung's relievers were stretched and wild after the starter left early, while KT's manager has said he will change how he uses his pen after a misstep. KT's lineup is hot, with a long run of wins at home. Samsung's path is a deep start from their pitcher and a repeat of the late KT collapse. I'm siding with KT at home.
