Two different shapes today: a Korean Series opener where one side is rested and the other is stretched thin, and a Champions League night where one side keeps the ball and the other mostly trades chances.
KT Wiz host Samsung in Game 1 in Suwon. KT is the regular-season number one and has not played since mid-October, so rust is the question, but they used practice games to stay sharp. Samsung needed five games to get past KIA, played as recently as Nov 1, and arrives without its closer. Jurado threw seven innings and is not available until Game 3, and Won Tae-in is being held back for the late innings. KT's manager named Daniel the Game 1 ace, and KT won the last three meetings with Samsung. If KT's rested bullpen gets a lead after six, Samsung has little way back. That's why I'm siding with KT Wiz to win.
Jeonbuk against Johor DT is a game between a side that controls the ball and a side that is open and ordinary. Jeonbuk have drawn four of their last six, with an even chance balance, around 13 shots for and 13.6 against. Johor out-shot all three opponents in this competition, including a 2-0 win away at Pohang with 20 shots against 9 and an xG gap of about 2.5 to 0.35. Johor also had seven days of rest while Jeonbuk play their third match in eight days. Jeonbuk can still score from a set piece or a counter, which is why a draw returning the stake matters. I'm backing Johor not to lose.
