Two Champions League Elite games in which the favoured side's reputation and the real chances each team creates in this competition don't line up. In Bangkok, Port have hardly reached the box against anyone outside Thailand, and Beijing know how to control a game away from home. In Kashiwa, a possession side that racks up goals against open J1 opponents meets a Korean side whose compact block has given up almost nothing in this competition. In both games, the side that controls the chances is not the one the general picture suggests.
Port under Bandovic win at home in their league by attacking through Bruno Moreira, Al Sabhi and Ruan. In three Asian games that front line has barely shown up: they did not have a single shot inside the box at home to Kobe, managed two shots in total at Johor, and conceded heavily each time, including five before half-time at Kashiwa. They also lost at home to Persib. Beijing under Montgomery keep the ball, but away from home they are comfortable without it. Their rotated side won 1-0 at Buriram with a clean sheet.
The key battle is Beijing's midfield runners, Zhang Xizhe, Dudziak and Wang Gang, against a Port midfield that Kashiwa and Johor both played through. Fabio's injury takes away a late finisher off the bench, not the starting attack, because Beijing's goals come from several players and Spajic adds a threat at set pieces. Port need a point, so their line has to push up, which gives Beijing more space. That's why I'm siding with Beijing, with the draw covered.
In Kashiwa, Rodriguez's team have big totals in J1 because open opponents attack them. Against teams that sit deep, the picture changes: 63% possession at Ratchaburi, 14 shots, 2 on target and a 0-0. Daejeon under Hwang Sun-hong set up a narrow block away from home. In this competition their opponents produced only 0.03, 0.36 and 0.52 xG, and they have never conceded more than once.
The matchup is Kashiwa's half-space play against Daejeon's five-man midfield. Daejeon's back four already kept a clean sheet at Jeonbuk without Lee Jung-taek, and Diogo played the last match off the bench, so their shape is current. Expect a tight first half, with Kashiwa's fresher bench pushing late and Daejeon countering into the space behind Kashiwa's high line. Daejeon have not lost by two or more in their last ten games. That's why I'm backing Daejeon to stay within a goal.
