Two ACL matches where the shape of the game points one way. In the first, one side owns the ball and the shots while the other barely creates anything. In the second, both teams have a habit of playing for a single decisive goal.
Kashima Antlers have been the volume team: around fifteen shots a game, strong expected goals, and sixteen goals in six recent home games. Pohang come in with very little attack, about seven tenths of an expected goal per game, a lot of shots conceded, and no points yet in this ACL campaign. Pohang's route is a set piece or a counter, but their corner volume has not turned into goals. The possible doubts around two Kashima defenders and midfielders are only squad flags, with alternatives available. I expect Kashima to hold territory, and that's why I'm siding with Kashima to win by a clear margin.
Persib Bandung have won all three of their ACL Two games by one goal to nil, built on controlled single goals, including a penalty in the latest one. Melbourne Victory's big win over Seoul came at home; away they have drawn, drawn and lost in low-event games. I expect a cautious first half, a goal that decides it, and a game that stays small. That's why I'm siding with fewer goals in Bandung.
