Two Champions League Elite games where the shape of play matters more than the badge on the shirt.
In South Korea, Jeonbuk are a side that draws a lot and gives up chances: about one and a half expected goals against per game over their recent sample. Johor arrive having controlled their continental games, averaging over 22 shots to about 6 for their opponents. Jeonbuk have drawn six of their last ten, so the level result is a real path, and that is why I want the draw to give my stake back. Lineups are unknown, so I lean on the pattern of chances, not names. That's why I'm siding with Johor away, with the draw refunded.
In Japan, Kashiwa press hard and shoot a lot, around sixteen shots a game, but their back line has leaked: in three of their last four league games they conceded more than two and a half expected goals. The 4-0 win over Urawa came after Urawa were reduced to ten men, so I discount it. Daejeon create a decent volume too and have been hard to beat away. A goal for each side is the more natural outcome, and that's where I'm going for this match.
