Two Premier League away trips where the headlines point one way and the structure points the other. Chelsea's long absence list is mostly the same group that was already missing when they won comfortably, while Sunderland's problems sit right in their own penalty box. At Ipswich, the gap between the teams is measured in chances at both ends, not in a winning streak. In both games the danger for the visitors is a level score, not a defeat.
Sunderland v Chelsea. Sunderland's home attack in open play has been thin across several games, with low chance totals against Brighton and Leeds even with plenty of the ball. In this match they lose both first-choice centre-backs, Ballard injured and Alderete suspended, so a back four that has never started together has to hold a deep block for ninety minutes. Six of their expected starters also played on Thursday, Xhaka the full match, while Chelsea have had over a week off. Chelsea's recent wins over United and Everton came without most of the players now listed as out, and both came from second-half pressure after a goalless first half. Angulo's running and Sunderland's set pieces are their outlets. I expect a tight first half and Chelsea's volume telling after the break. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea, with the draw covered.
Ipswich v Bournemouth. Bournemouth press the opponent's build-up and then go direct to Evanilson, with Kluivert and Rayan running behind. Their recent run is backed by chances created against varied opposition, including a win at Old Trafford with little of the ball. Ipswich concede a lot of chances home and away and create little when they are not chasing. At home they are likely to have more of the ball than usual and build short from the back, which is exactly where Bournemouth's press wins it. Ipswich's best route is Davis and Philogene down the left against Adam Smith, with Juanlu out, and their bench has a habit of late goals. Bournemouth's Thursday minutes were managed, with key starters only coming on in the second half. That's why I'm siding with Bournemouth, again with the draw covered.
