Two home sides, two opponents with holes at the back. In both games the team with the ball also has the clearer route to goals, while the visitors rely on counters and set pieces.
Inter against Fiorentina: Inter have won all four league games at home and scored 15 goals in them. At Bologna they had 65 percent of the ball, 17 shots and a chance quality of 3.35 against 0.90. Fiorentina are 18th with one win in seven, have conceded 8 in three away games, and are missing the defenders Parisi and Ranieri. Inter's own absences (Pavard, Stones, Jones) were already out in their recent games, so those results already count them. Inter's goals have often come late, which fits a Fiorentina side that tires. That's why I'm siding with Inter to win by a clear margin.
Athletic Bilbao against Getafe: Athletic keep the ball at home and Getafe sit deep, but Getafe come off a five-goal defeat on Thursday, with Djene suspended and Zaid Romero and Mangala out. They score under one goal a game and have scored only twice in five away games. Athletic lose Laporte, Guruzeta and Sancet, so their finishing is thinner and a draw is a real path, yet the fatigue and the broken Getafe defence are specific to this match. I'm siding with Athletic to win in normal time.
