This match will be decided after half-time, and both teams' records point to the same window. Henan have the ball and the corners but leak almost all of their goals in second halves. Tianjin sit deep, take the pressure and do nearly all of their scoring after the break. Holding a lead is the step Henan have failed most often, and both sides know a draw nearly secures their place.
Henan are the side with possession. Over their last ten they averaged around 55 percent of the ball, close to 16 shots and six corners, but they have gone eight league games without a win, seven of them draws. Of the 15 goals they conceded in that run, 14 came after half-time. They led at the break in six of those ten games and four of those leads ended as draws, including 2-0 up against Liaoning ending 4-4 and a lead against ten-man Shenzhen thrown away in five minutes early in the second half.
Tianjin are a deliberate low block. They had only 29 percent of the ball at Chengdu, made 28 clearances and won it with a stoppage-time goal down the left. Across the season they have conceded 12 in 13 away games, and 12 of their last 15 goals came after half-time, including comebacks against Yunnan and Qingdao West Coast.
The key matchups: Henan's crosses and set pieces, with Gustavo in the air and Nazario delivering, against a Tianjin box that clears everything but whose goalkeeper is carrying a knock. Then Cordoba's diagonal balls into the space behind Henan's advanced full-back, the exact route of the Chengdu winner. Captain Wang Qiuming lost two teeth in that game but has travelled with the squad.
On absences, Tianjin's four doubts all played in their last match and the local report describes them as playing through knocks, not ruled out. Nazario is fit for Henan and scored last time out.
I expect Henan to have the first half and the corners with the score still close, then a second half where Henan's lapses after the break meet Tianjin's late running. A draw or a late Tianjin goal both fit what these two teams have been doing. That's why I'm siding with Tianjin not to lose.
