[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior Rotterdam Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 16, 18:00 UTC
SC Heerenveen and Excelsior Rotterdam meet at Abe Lenstra Stadion in round 9 of the 2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie. The points gap between the sides is two after eight matches. Excelsior Rotterdam sit higher in the table, but SC Heerenveen are favoured at home. Whether that view is borne out depends on the home side’s scoring problems and the visitors’ defensive approach.
1. Match overview and team form
Excelsior Rotterdam are ninth with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, while SC Heerenveen are 10th with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats. Both teams have played only league matches this season, and each has had six or seven days between its previous game and this one. There is no schedule pressure that should force either side to rest starters. SC Heerenveen manager Robin Veldman has spoken about the team’s failure to convert chances, while Ruben den Uil has promised a response from Excelsior Rotterdam after their 1-5 defeat to FC Groningen.
League record after 8 matches Table position and points: SC Heerenveen, 10th, 9 points / Excelsior Rotterdam, 9th, 11 points Goals scored and conceded: SC Heerenveen, 11 and 11 / Excelsior Rotterdam, 16 and 14 Record in the relevant venue split: SC Heerenveen at home, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats / Excelsior Rotterdam away, 2 wins, 2 draws
SC Heerenveen’s main reason for their low points total is their scoring, rather than goals conceded. Their 11 conceded is the sixth-fewest in the league, but they have scored only 3 goals in 4 home matches. They had 63% possession and 6 shots on target against Telstar, yet drew 0-0. They had 64% of the ball against PEC Zwolle but lost 0-2. Both opponents sat back, and Heerenveen could not turn their long spells of possession into goals. They had 2 big chances against Telstar, while PEC Zwolle finished ahead of them for both shots and expected goals.
They did beat Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 away. When the hosts pushed forward and lost the ball, SC Heerenveen attacked before their defensive shape could recover, and 3 of the 4 goals came from those transitions. Their most recent outing was a 0-2 defeat away to PSV, though they did create chances. The data centre put SC Heerenveen’s expected goals at 1.56 and PSV’s at 1.60. Maxence Rivera missed a chance in front of goal, then Heerenveen conceded from a cross and a corner. Those figures cover only the PSV match among the data centre’s most recent two games, so they do not represent the team’s scoring output across the season.
Excelsior Rotterdam have the opposite home and away split. They have 1 win and 3 defeats at home this season, but are unbeaten in 4 away games. Across the data centre’s last 10 matches, including the end of last season, their home record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats, compared with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats away. On the road, they have let opponents have the ball, kept their defensive lines compact, then scored through wide attacks and corners. Their 2 away wins this season came against SC Cambuur and Willem II, though. At Ajax, they drew 2-2 with 19% possession and 4 shots, scoring twice while allowing 31 shots and needing goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel to make saves. The away unbeaten run alone does not prove that their defence is solid.
The recent results for both teams need context. SC Heerenveen lost to PSV after missing chances, while Excelsior Rotterdam took a point at Ajax despite giving up plenty of opportunities. Excelsior then lost 1-5 at home to FC Groningen after a turnover during a build-up from the back led to a series of mistakes. Den Uil said the team would return to its early-season approach, which also included pressing high away from home. His comments do not confirm how high they will defend in this match.
Neither side has a major new absence that should force a change to its recent starting lineup. SC Heerenveen’s Dirk Proper is very unlikely to be available because of a hamstring injury, but Marcus Linday and Nolhan Courtnes have started together in midfield recently. Second-choice goalkeeper Andries Noppert is also a doubt for the squad. Excelsior Rotterdam’s Noah Naujoks is a doubt. He has not started since the team’s first match of the season, so his absence is already reflected in their recent attacking setup. SC Heerenveen used the same starting 11 for the 4-0 win over Sparta Rotterdam and the PSV match, and Excelsior Rotterdam also kept their lineup unchanged between the Ajax and FC Groningen games.
SC Heerenveen won both meetings last season 2-1. The goals themselves, though, do not make those results a reliable guide to this match. Heerenveen scored from a penalty, a long-range shot, a counterattack and a follow-up after the goalkeeper had saved the first attempt. Some of the players involved are no longer at the club, and Excelsior Rotterdam are now ninth, unlike their position near the foot of the table or their losing run at the time. The meetings are still useful for showing that Heerenveen found chances by running in behind, and that Excelsior scored away from home by pressing the hosts’ passes out from the back. Both details are relevant to today’s tactics.
2. Matchup analysis
The biggest variable is where Excelsior Rotterdam choose to start defending. If Den Uil has them sit deep and keep their lines compact, as they did away to Ajax, SC Heerenveen are likely to have more of the ball. Heerenveen failed to turn that situation into goals against Telstar and PEC Zwolle. Striker Dylan Vente has played 673 league minutes this season without scoring, though he has 2 assists. With Veldman continuing to select him, it will matter whether Levi Smans and Courtnes can get into the box after Vente links play, or whether Jacob Trenskow can cut inside from the right and shoot.
We should not assume Excelsior’s defence will hold out against Heerenveen as Telstar did. Ajax had 22 shots inside the box against them. If SC Heerenveen can get low crosses in from the left through Vasilios Zagaritis and Rivera, and a second-line runner reaches the ball before the defenders, they could get better shooting positions than they did in their previous home games without a goal. Rivera ran in behind for decisive chances in both meetings last season. He also had a chance in front of goal against PSV but did not score. Even if he gets in behind again, finishing the move is a separate challenge.
That left side is also directly up against Excelsior Rotterdam’s attack. Irakli Yegoian advances on the visitors’ right and delivers low crosses. Ajax’s Ayoub Sliti scored from that route, as did Casper Widell with a header against PSV. If Zagaritis pushes up to attack, SC Heerenveen can create more crossing opportunities, but Yegoian can also run into the space he leaves when the home side loses the ball. Veldman has said that Linday and Courtnes share the responsibility, with one of them staying back. If the player left behind can stop Yegoian’s runs, the home side can keep attacking. If he cannot react in time, the visitors can get the ball into the box despite having less possession.
A high press from Excelsior Rotterdam would create a different type of game. SC Heerenveen scored 4 times against Sparta Rotterdam by attacking quickly after the hosts pushed forward and lost the ball. If Den Uil’s side press high and leave space behind their defence, Heerenveen’s transitions could be more dangerous than their attacks against a low block. Excelsior also pressed Heerenveen’s passes from the back to score the opener in one of last season’s meetings. Naujoks, who was involved in that press, is a doubt, and Excelsior lost the ball under pressure against FC Groningen in their last match. The same choice to press could lead to different outcomes, depending on which side wins the ball in the opposition half.
Set pieces give Excelsior Rotterdam a way to score without needing much possession. The match-by-match scoring breakdown this season includes 5 goals from corners. Simon Janssen delivers, with Rick Meissen, Garden and Widell among those challenging for the ball in front of goal. SC Heerenveen conceded from a cross and a corner against PSV. If Excelsior allow a high number of shots and have to rely on van Gassel’s saves, the hosts could also score from a corner or a follow-up in the box.
Open-Meteo’s Heerenveen forecast published on October 16 shows rain around the 20:00 local kick-off and stronger winds around 21:00, when the second half begins. If the forecast holds, the wind could make high crosses and corners less accurate after the break. Yegoian’s low crosses and SC Heerenveen’s passes along the ground should be less affected, though handling a wet ball could put more pressure on the goalkeepers. The weather alone does not give either team an advantage. In particular, we should distinguish the forecast from the conditions on the day.
The managers’ responses after the opening goal could also change the match. Excelsior Rotterdam have won all 3 matches in which they led at half-time this season, and lost all 3 in which they trailed. That does not mean the first goal will decide the result. Den Uil has won a match by adding a fifth defender while the score was level, and when behind he has brought on several attacking players. SC Heerenveen failed to protect a half-time lead against AZ Alkmaar, and also conceded an equaliser after leading in the second half away to Willem II. Even if the hosts score first, they will still have to deal with the visitors’ wide attacks and Den Uil’s second-half substitutions. If the visitors score first, Heerenveen will again have to solve the scoring problem they faced in their previous home matches against a deeper defence.
3. Verdict and conclusion
SC Heerenveen are likely to have more of the ball and target Excelsior Rotterdam’s right side. Excelsior allowed plenty of shots inside the box against Ajax, so Smans and Courtnes could get chances if they attack the box to meet low crosses. But when Zagaritis pushes forward on that same flank, Yegoian has a route to counter. Excelsior can also score without having much possession through Janssen’s set pieces.
The market rates SC Heerenveen highly because of their low number of goals conceded and their chance creation, along with Excelsior Rotterdam’s record of allowing plenty of opportunities away from home. The concerns about the visitors’ defence are fair. We think the market has not fully accounted for the need for Heerenveen to keep stopping attacks down the same flank and to deal with Den Uil’s second-half changes after taking the lead. The home side have also failed to protect leads this season, so a Heerenveen goal does not automatically mean a win.
Our score prediction is SC Heerenveen 1-1 Excelsior Rotterdam. The home side could score through a low cross from the left and a run from midfield, but we expect the visitors to level through Yegoian’s wide play or a set piece. If Excelsior add defenders after the equaliser and Heerenveen leave one midfielder back, further goals could be hard to find. This prediction depends on Excelsior maintaining their defensive shape. If they press high from the start and lose the ball in their own half, SC Heerenveen could score early on the counter and win by a wider margin.
