Three matches where the defensive side of the ledger tells the story. In each one, a leaky or depleted back line is the main thing separating the teams, and the injury lists make that gap wider than the table alone shows.
Everton are seventh and hard to beat at home, with four clean sheets in their last ten and more shots on target than they allow. Coventry are sixteenth, play with little of the ball, and are missing a defender and their lead striker, as they have been for four straight games. Everton score modestly, so I expect a narrow edge built on box chances and set pieces. That's why I'm siding with Everton.
Derby have won once in fourteen, have no home wins, create little, and are missing four defenders; they conceded eight across their last two games. Bolton have lost attackers too, but their away form is better than their home form and Derby's back line is the bigger problem. I'm siding with Bolton.
Hamburg against Gladbach is a relegation-zone meeting between two sides conceding about two a game. Hamburg's centre of defence is newly depleted and they defend deep, while Gladbach have scored in nine of their last ten. Hamburg's attack is blunt, but the first goal should open the game. That's why I'm leaning toward plenty of goals in this match.
