Gamba Osaka against Buriram looks like a match where the table, the shot quality and the situation all sit on one side. Gamba arrive with two wins from two in this competition, while Buriram are still searching for an identity under a coach with only a few games in charge.
Gamba control the ball and get their shots on target: around five a game, and seven goals in two continental outings. Buriram take plenty of shots, but in their home loss to Beijing only three of sixteen were on target and most came from outside the box. The new coach, the long trip and a back line that conceded three at home to a Thai league side days ago add to it.
Some Gamba players carry doubtful flags, but the forward and centre-back depth is there. I expect Gamba to lead the shot-on-target count and win by a goal or two, which is why I'm siding with Gamba Osaka.
Sagan Tosu against Kawasaki Frontale is a cup tie between a J2 side that lives on corners and volume and a J1 side that keeps getting into open games. Kawasaki's last five matches all produced at least three goals.
Tosu win their home games through pressure, about fifteen shots and eight corners per game, and their home results have run two, three, three, three and one goals. Kawasaki let opponents take around fourteen shots, and their finishing means they answer back. The injury flags on Kawasaki are weeks old and the team has been winning without those players.
I expect an open game where both sides get chances and goals come after the first hour, so I'm on the goals side in this tie.
