France are the clear favourites at home, but this looks like a tight, low-margin game rather than a comfortable one. They are missing Mbappé, Upamecano, Guendouzi and Zaïre-Emery, so the spine of the side is patched up, and Belgium lose De Bruyne and Tielemans, so both teams are short in the middle. My read is that neither side can pull clear, and that is what the pick turns on.
France's three Nations League games so far were all settled by one goal or less: 1-0 away at Turkey, 1-0 away at Belgium and a 1-1 draw with Italy. They lead the group, but they have not been blowing anyone away. The earlier meeting with Belgium finished 1-0 as well, even with Belgium on only 35 percent of the ball.
The back line is the other thing I keep coming back to. Upamecano was sent off against Italy and is out, and the previews have Lacroix and Jacquet as the likely centre-back pair, so France will be playing with a partnership that has barely worked together. Belgium have pace on the counter in Lukebakio and Godts, and they showed they can score by beating Turkey 3-0 in their last game.
The case against Belgium is real. France keep the ball well at home, and Olise, Dembélé and Doué are a strong front line even without Mbappé. France have also beaten Belgium in each of their recent meetings. But losing De Bruyne and Tielemans takes away most of Belgium's way of controlling a game, so I expect them to defend deep and look for the break.
The market has leaned further toward France over the last few days, even though France's own absence list is as long as Belgium's. I would rather take the side of the tight game.
