Two matches here where the style matchup matters more than the headline form. Feyenoord's home press runs straight into the weak spot in Como's possession game, which is building through the two pivots under man-to-man pressure. At Carrow Road, Southampton's chance numbers are much better than their away results show, and Norwich's injuries fall right in the midfield screen where they already leak chances. In both games the content says something different from the form table.
Feyenoord vs Como. Under Fabregas, Como are a real possession side: over their last ten games they average about 62% of the ball, around 20 shots and roughly 2.0 xG. Their losses and blanks have come in two ways, though. One is poor finishing, with nothing scored from good volume at Frosinone and at home to Roma. The other is an aggressive press hitting Milla and Da Cunha in the build-up. Frosinone scored twice in the first half with only a third of the ball. Van Bronckhorst's Feyenoord beat AZ, their strongest league opponent, in exactly that way: they pressed early, forced errors and scored from a corner, winning the xG battle comfortably while giving up under one expected goal.
The key duel is Feyenoord's press of Targhalline, Zechiel and Ferri against Como's pivots. Behind that, Como are without Kean, the one forward who punishes a high line, so the space Feyenoord leave when they press is less dangerous than usual. Feyenoord have the XI that beat AZ, with Watanabe back fit. Their problem is left-back, where Smal and Bos are both out and Marmol has to move across. The Barcelona rout shows what happens if Feyenoord get pinned back. But Como are not Barcelona, and this is their first Champions League away trip, with Fabregas talking about using the whole squad. Expect an intense opening half-hour, with the first goal deciding how open it gets. That's why I'm siding with Feyenoord not to lose at home.
Norwich vs Southampton. Norwich's losing run is about content. In every recent game with stats they conceded more than one expected goal, often well over one and a half, and in their last two league games without top scorer Toure they created very little. Southampton under Eckert keep the ball and create around 1.8 xG a game. They lost at Watford and Wrexham despite clearly out-creating both, with an own goal deciding one of them.
The matchup that matters is Azaz and Matsuki between the lines against a Norwich screen missing captain McLean and Topic, with Bree and Manning overlapping from full-back. Bragg's suspension takes some pressing energy out of Southampton's midfield, so Norwich's best chance is on the break. Without Toure, though, their front line has struggled to turn transitions into real chances. I expect Southampton to control the game and Norwich to tire after the break, as they have done recently. That's why I'm siding with Southampton to win at Carrow Road.
