Two Champions League nights where the squad news shapes the game more than the table does. In one, a pressing side has lost the strikers it needs to hurt the home team. In the other, the home side's back line is stretched thin just as the visitors' best weapon is quick transitions.
Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague. Fenerbahce are a possession-and-width side: 59 percent of the ball and 24 shots in the last home game against Alanyaspor, with a chance quality of almost four expected goals, after an 8-0 home win earlier. Their weakness is the midfield pair under pressure, which is exactly how Aston Villa scored early in the 6-0 loss. Slavia will press man to man and that is the real danger. But Slavia arrive without Ouanda (injured) and Chory (left out after the red card against Hradec), so Chytil leads the line alone, and the coach himself says the team has a huge problem scoring, one goal in three matches. Their centre-back cover is gone too. Fenerbahce's absences are at full-back and one creative slot, and the same two full-backs were already missing in the 3-0 last time out. If Fenerbahce play through the first twenty minutes of pressure, the space behind a man-marking press suits their quick wide players. That is why I'm siding with Fenerbahce to win.
Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid. Stuttgart will keep the ball and press, but their numbers come mostly against weaker sides, and two of the ten games in their form string are friendlies. They also lost at Hamburg despite 24 shots. Atletico have been tighter and better by chance quality against stronger opposition, and they now hold the ball too. Stuttgart are missing two of their four centre-backs, Zagadou for sure and Al-Dakhil doubtful, and the replacement Jeltsch has already come off injured twice. Atletico lose Romero and Koke, and Simeone hinted at rotation, so this is no free ride. But quick balls in behind a high line with a patched pair at the back is the kind of match Atletico's late, transition-based goals suit. I'm with Atletico not losing here, with the stake returned if it ends level.
