Köln should see more of the ball, but their recent possession has not reliably become close shots. Union have defended the middle more tightly in their recent matches and can break into the space behind a home attack. That makes the quality of Köln's final pass more important than the amount of territory they hold.
El Mala and Bülter can threaten early, yet Köln's pressure faded into slower moves against Schalke and Frankfurt. Union held Dortmund to limited central access, with Skarke offering a running outlet and dead balls another way to enter the box. Querfeld also helped repair Union's defence after the early red card at Augsburg, though that unusual match is a weaker guide to normal attacking volume.
Ache missed Köln's last match and his participation remains undecided, leaving the central finishing role uncertain. Union's Ilić, Juranović and Nsoki also missed their last game; Uduokhai played briefly before injury, and Querfeld's substantial replacement minutes matter more than treating a league suspension as a cup absence.
I expect Köln to push first and Union to make the middle difficult to enter, then use Skarke and restarts to interrupt the pressure. That's why I'm siding with Union Berlin to avoid defeat during regular time.
