This match sets a possession-heavy visitor on short rest against a modest home side that has had a full week to prepare. Leverkusen create a lot but also concede a lot, and Koln are limited in attack, so a tight, transition-driven game looks more likely than a comfortable away win.
Leverkusen are sixth and lost their last three as the favourite: 0-3 at Hoffenheim, 2-4 at home to Stuttgart and 0-1 at home to Marseille on Thursday in the Europa League. That left them under three days of rest and with a thin centre-back group. Their forward absences have lasted eight games, so they are already part of the form. Koln are 15th, but unbeaten in their last five home games with three wins and two draws.
Koln are missing Skhiri and all three nominal strikers, which takes away their ball-winner and focal point. Even so, they scored five in the cup and one at Union Berlin without them, and their route is wide runners behind Leverkusen's full backs and set pieces.
I expect Leverkusen to hold the ball while Koln sit and counter. The fatigue should show in the second half. That's why I'm siding with Koln not to lose at home.
