This match should turn on who controls the wide spaces and turns territory into clean chances. Copenhagen have a clear home supply route through Elyounoussi and their advancing wide players. Braga bring a press that can interrupt that route and an attack that can reach the box after winning the ball. The contest should grow sharper as both sides adjust their midfield positions.
Copenhagen can work through Clem, Delaney or Král to find Elyounoussi, then use Beijmo and Lopez to supply Cornelius. In their last match against Midtjylland, they took 14 shots but put only one on target, while eight Midtjylland attempts produced 1.54 expected goals. Braga held Sporting to 0.95 expected goals and made 11 attempts inside the box at the other end. Horta and Pau Víctor were involved in close-range moves before Braga changed their attack from the bench.
Madsen and Mattsson missed Copenhagen's last match and remain unavailable, narrowing the midfield options around Clem, Delaney and Král. Niakaté also missed Braga's last match, so the defensive unit that restricted Sporting has already played without him. Gabri Martínez came on after the hour against Sporting and is outside Braga's travelling squad; the Horta and Pau Víctor route was already working before that substitution.
Braga can press Copenhagen's first pass, keep the wide delivery from becoming a clear shot for Cornelius, and release Horta or Pau Víctor into the space behind the advancing wide players. Their box pressure against Sporting and Copenhagen's recent difficulty turning shots into accurate finishes give that route weight across the match. That's why I'm siding with Braga to take the match.
