Everton against Coventry is a settled Moyes mid-block at home against a Lampard side that lives on a handful of quick chances. Coventry's attack looks very different away from home than it does at home. Pickford is in good form, while Coventry's goalkeeper has been letting shots in. This match turns on whether Coventry's thin away route can produce anything at all.
Everton win low-scoring games. They have scored nine and conceded nine in nine league games, with Barry as the lone senior striker and Dewsbury-Hall as the creator. Their goals come from quick restarts, rebounds and transitions. Coventry sit deep, with 33 to 44 percent of the ball in their last five games. Away from home they have scored two and conceded seven in four league games. They managed one shot on target at Spurs and three at Forest.
The key matchup is Pickford against that away attack. Pickford has kept out more than expected in each of his last three league games, and he made eight saves in the cup win over Newcastle. At the other end, Rushworth was beaten three times from five shots on target at Spurs, and the Mfuni-Pinnock pair allowed 17 shots against Sunderland. So Everton have a real route to a goal.
Haji Wright has been out since mid-October, so Coventry's poor away numbers already reflect his absence, with Awoniyi leading the line. Their scoring run came at home against Newcastle and Sunderland, two sides that opened up. Grealish is out for Everton, but he already missed their last two games, both wins.
I expect Everton to have more of the ball and a cautious first half. If Everton score first, they protect the lead with a deep shape and Pickford behind it. That's why I'm siding with one of these teams being kept off the scoresheet, most likely Coventry.
