Everton and Coventry should fight over the first midfield outlet and the wide ball that follows it. Derby and Bolton have a similar early contest over second balls in front of an altered back line. Recent scores in both fixtures hide how many clean final touches each attack produced. Those contacts, and the supply that survives after the first goal, shape these matches.
Everton have fed Barry from recoveries and quick restarts, but their cup win also depended on repeated Pickford saves. Coventry reached Sakamoto through Van Ewijk and brought Awoniyi and Rudoni into the box against Sunderland. Wright had already missed that Coventry win, while Grealish missed Everton's recent wins and remains unavailable; George played in the latest league game before a later fitness doubt. Coventry's wide reception and box follow-up should keep them involved even after Everton pressure. That's why I'm siding with Coventry to stay close.
Derby's recent back line conceded repeated wide deliveries to Norwich, while their own first-half supply barely reached Morris. Bolton can contest the next ball through Ito and Simons, then release Dalby or a wide runner into that space. Szmodics left Derby's last match injured and is now out after surgery; Bolton's Forino completed the Charlton match and Ito was later reported fit after cramp. Bolton can test Derby early and retain a central finishing route as the game opens. That's why I'm siding with Bolton to finish ahead, with a level finish covered by the slip.
