Coventry's attack is two different teams: dangerous at home, and very quiet on the road. Seven of their nine league goals came at home, and away they have managed only one to three shots on target in every game. Everton under Moyes create plenty but rarely run up big scores, and once ahead they tend to sit and protect. Put together, the shape points to a narrow game.
Everton's main edge is in the air. Barry and the centre-backs at set pieces face a makeshift Coventry pairing, with Amenda, Woolfenden and Bobby Thomas all out or doubtful. That is where Everton should find a goal. Their record of turning volume into goals is modest, though, and only once in their last ten have they scored three.
Coventry's road threat leans on breaks and long throws, and their main striker Wright is out, which leaves Awoniyi and the bench to finish what little comes. Everton have also coped without Grealish in their last two wins, so his absence is already in their recent form.
I expect Everton to have most of the ball against a deep Coventry block, with a goalless or one-goal first half. If Everton go ahead, recent history says they protect the lead rather than chase more. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match.
