Frankfurt against Hamburg is a rematch five days after a cup tie that showed both halves of the same picture: Hamburg dangerous on the break in the first half, Frankfurt's runners decisive after it. Hamburg's centre of defence is the least settled unit on the pitch, and their away attack has been thin. In Turin, two sides level on points meet with neither defence reliable lately. Juventus restrict chances but concede on small ones, and Napoli create plenty but struggle to hold what they have.
Frankfurt under Hutter create and leak, with home xG of 2.22, 2.18 and 1.33. They win through runners and arrivals: Burkardt and Ebnoutalib behind the line, Gotze's passes into the box and Koch from second phases of corners. All three routes produced goals inside 19 minutes in the cup, after Bornauw had gone off at half-time. Bornauw is still doubtful with training only partly done, and Vuskovic, Capaldo, Remberg, Nadir, Vieira and Poulsen are all out.
Hamburg's own route runs through El Ouahdi and Moller Wolfe on the wings with Gronbaek between the lines, and they had 15 shots in the cup. Away from home, though, they have made 0.93 xG a game and blanked in three of four, and their only goals came at Hoffenheim, two of them against ten men. Frankfurt also have fresher legs to bring in, with Brassier expected back.
Expect a slow first half, since both teams' last three games were all goalless at the break, then the match turning after it as Frankfurt's bench meets tiring wing-backs and an improvised centre. That's why I'm siding with Frankfurt here, on a selection that still stands if the slow game holds.
In Turin, Spalletti's Juventus are without Yildiz, Conceicao and Gonzalez, so their goal threat falls on two strikers, crosses, corners and the bench, with Zhegrova and Boga declared as second-half options. That suits the opponent's weak point. Napoli are missing Buongiorno, Badiashile and Lobotka's screen in front of the defence, Rrahmani is coming back from flu, and they conceded from crosses and corners at Monza and against Roma.
The other end is just as live. Politano and McTominay attack the far side against McKennie, an adapted wing-back, and Juventus's own record shows sharp concessions: Lazio scored three from three shots on target in Turin, and Genoa scored one from a far-side run and one on a counter after a Juventus corner. Napoli have scored in eight of their last ten and conceded in eight of their last ten.
The first half should be cagey, with both coaches asking for balance before a European week. What matters is the first goal, and either way it leaves the other side a working route. Juventus have dropped their line after leading, as against Rennes, and Napoli have let leads go against Villarreal, Bodo and Roma. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends in this one, most likely in the shape of a 1-1 or a one-goal game either way.
