The goalless first leg had a clear cause, and that cause is gone. East Bengal arrived in Oman tired after a short turnaround and a long trip, and their coach said so. Both sides now have about a week of rest, East Bengal are at home, and both need the win. This return leg is built around East Bengal's chance volume against an Al Seeb attack that has yet to score at this level.
East Bengal win their continental games on volume rather than possession. They had 19 shots and 9 on target at home to group leaders Al Shorta with only 39% of the ball, and 16 shots in Oman. They also score early: they were two up at half-time at Al Hussein and ahead at the break against Al Shorta.
Al Seeb are a different story. They score freely at home in Oman but have no goals in three continental games, even with plenty of shots: 16 against Al Hussein and 18 in the first leg. Their problem is the final pass and the finish, not getting into shooting positions.
The key matchup is Dani Ramirez and the East Bengal front line against an Al Seeb back four that gave up 13 to 16 shots a game in this competition. At the other end, Meye and Al Aghbari face Zivulic and Anwar Ali, a centre-back pair that has only been beaten by the two strongest attacks in the group, and only after East Bengal were already ahead.
The absences don't touch the side that built these numbers. Mahesh and Rakip haven't featured in the continental games, and Habas says the squad is practically complete.
I expect East Bengal to push higher at home than they did in Oman and go looking for an early goal. If it comes, Al Seeb have to chase with an attack that hasn't scored in 270 minutes, and the space to counter opens up. Neither side has any reason to settle for a draw. That's why I'm siding with East Bengal to win at home.
