Two matches where one side's chance volume meets a depleted back line. Brighton out-shoot and out-create Getafe on paper, and Palace against Hoffenheim looks like a game with space at both ends.
Getafe against Brighton: Brighton average nearly nineteen shots against about eleven for Getafe, with a clear expected-goals edge. Getafe are missing two defenders and a starting midfielder and have conceded a lot both home and away. Brighton's attack is thinner without Ferguson and Mitoma, but the territory and chance gap are real. I'm siding with Brighton to win.
Crystal Palace against Hoffenheim: Palace allowed Tottenham thirty-four shots and a huge chance count, and are missing Riad and Tomiyasu from the back. Hoffenheim are direct and had fifteen shots inside the box against Leverkusen, though their back line is also short with Hajdari and Hranac out. Palace have bench quality to score late, and a comfortable Hoffenheim win gets there too. That's why I'm backing goals in this one.
