Red Star's first pressure meets a Copenhagen midfield with fewer ways to secure the opening pass. The contest should turn on the next ball in central areas and on how quickly either side can reach a receiver beyond the first line. Both teams have direct and wide routes, so the opening territorial battle will have consequences well beyond possession.
Riera has said Red Star will press, and Krunić and Elšnik are positioned to turn recoveries into passes for Kostov, Čam and the wide runners. Copenhagen can look directly for Cornelius or release Robert and Elyounoussi behind an advanced wingback, but Král is out of the match squad, Mattsson and Maseko are injured, and Madsen has only a brief recent outing behind him.
The home side's first wave should therefore win useful second balls and bring Dieng into the box, with Ivanić or Arnautović offering another receiving phase later. Copenhagen's heavy home chance volume against Aarhus contrasts with its single shot on target away at Midtjylland. That first-pass matchup and Red Star's later attacking options are why I'm siding with Red Star to win.
