Two Champions League nights where the absence lists matter more than the names on the shirts. At Como, a possession side at home meets a Manchester United back line that has lost two of its three recent centre-backs in the last few days. In Munich, Bayern's famous attacking numbers were built by three creators who are all missing, against the best-organised defence they have faced in weeks. In both games the side the market leans on is weaker than its averages suggest.
Como v Manchester United. Under Fabregas, Como hold most of the ball at home and create through Nico Paz between the lines, Valle's crosses and runs in behind. Their home chance numbers have been big against Leipzig and Parma. Their only home blank came against a Roma side that went down to ten men. United under Carrick have become a deep, counter-first away team. They have not reached even one expected goal in any of their three games since Sesko went out, and their only goals came from Mbeumo in open play.
The key matchup is Paz against a thin United pivot (no Mainoo, no Ugarte), with a rebuilt centre-back pair behind it. Lisandro Martinez went off at Leeds and is not with the squad, Yoro is suspended after his red card in Madrid, and De Ligt is set for his first match in about eleven months. The defence that was already conceding plenty of chances in each of its last four games was stronger than this one. Como have their own problems, with Kean, Diao, Rodriguez and Chalobah out and only fifteen players available. But the attacking trio of Paz, Douvikas and Liberali just scored three away at Fiorentina.
The likely flow is Como probing against a mid-to-low block. United's best hope is Mbeumo breaking behind the full-backs or a set piece through Maguire. If Como score first, United have to come out, and their second-half output has fallen away in every recent away game. Both benches are thin, so a level game late on is realistic. That's why I'm siding with Como while protecting the draw.
Bayern v Arsenal. Bayern win by sheer volume: lots of possession, shots from the right half-space through Olise, a No. 10 behind Kane and Kimmich's passing and deliveries. This time Olise is suspended, Musiala is still out and Kimmich is reported out after playing at the weekend. Kane and Diaz still finish chances, but the players who supply them are gone, and Karl or Gnabry, Saibari and Goretzka or Bischof come in. Kompany is also ill, with Danks leading the team.
Arsenal win through control. Their stand-in centre-back pair of Gabriel and Konsa has conceded once in three games together, and that same pair plays here, so Arsenal's numbers already include their absences. Rice and Guimaraes should win more second balls against a Bayern midfield without Kimmich. Arsenal's goals usually come after the hour, when opponents open up.
I expect a tight first half and a game decided after the break, when Bayern have to chase with fewer creators and Arsenal's runners get space behind a high line. A draw is a realistic result. That's why I'm siding with Arsenal, with the stake protected if it finishes level.
