Two games where the roster picture does most of the work. In Cleveland, the home side leans on three-point volume and trips to the line, and the visitors arrive with both centres and four guards unavailable. In Los Angeles, one team has scored and defended its way to a clear positive margin while the other has been losing by double digits with its wing group missing for the whole sample.
Cleveland against Oklahoma City: Cleveland takes 38 to 51 threes a game and has a plus 30 differential over six games. Oklahoma City is minus 3, has lost its last two road games by 21 and 24, and scores just 23.4 in fourth quarters. With Holmgren and Sorber out, rim protection and rebounding are thin, and the guards who would press Cleveland's ball handlers are also missing. Oklahoma City can still keep it close if its stars make a lot of threes, but the structure favours the home side. That's why I'm siding with Cleveland to win.
Clippers against Toronto: Toronto is plus 7.8 a game over six official games and the Clippers are minus 7.3, with their last five losses by 7 to 24. The Clippers turn it over 17 to 26 times in most box scores, which feeds Toronto's steals and transition points. Their guard and wing absences are not new, they have been there all along, so the weak margin is the real picture. Toronto's centres are the question, but its recent scoring without Leonard held up. I'm siding with Toronto to win this one.
