Chelsea and Spurs both arrive with a weakened unit right where the other side attacks best, so this London derby looks open at both ends. At Mestalla it's the reverse: Valencia's new compact block meets a Villarreal side three days after a wild night at Anfield. One match is set up for chances, the other for a tight game where a level score is the most natural state.
At Stamford Bridge, Spurs have lost both of their screening midfielders, Bentancur and Bergvall, and Maddison has not trained for three days. That leaves a stand-in midfield trying to play out against Chelsea's press, which is exactly where Chelsea have found their early goals at home. Chelsea have scored 19 in five home games, and every one of their last ten matches has had at least two goals.
The other half matters just as much. Chelsea go in with a reserve keeper in Penders, and the predicted back four has a winger at full-back. Kudus and Porro running at that side, plus Spurs' corners against a keeper who conceded from a corner header against Leeds, give Spurs a real route. Under Alonso, Chelsea have also let leads slip before: 2-2 twice with Hull, and a 3-1 that became messy against Bournemouth. If Chelsea score first, De Zerbi has to go vertical and the game opens up. The rain cuts both ways: slower play, but more errors in short build-up and more handling problems for a stand-in keeper. That's why I'm siding with goals at Stamford Bridge.
In Valencia, the long injury list that moved the market was already missing from the side that drew 0-0 with Athletic and 2-2 at Racing under Aguirre. Nothing new is lost on the pitch. Villarreal's league weakness is breaking compact sides: 0-1 at Alaves, 0-0 with Elche despite 20 shots, 0-1 in Madrid. They come in after a 3-4 at Liverpool, with Saliba doubtful and rotation admitted, and their second-half threat has dropped after European weeks.
The likely shape is Villarreal holding the ball against a low block, with Valencia hitting back through Guerra and Danjuma on the break and through a bench that has scored late in three of their last four league games with goals. That's why I'm siding with Valencia not losing at home.
