Two Championship games where the home side's structure fits what the visitors are bringing this week. Norwich's chance creation has dried up just as they meet a Charlton block that is hard to break at home. Derby lose their midfield screen on a windy day at Bramall Lane against a side that plays direct. Neither match should be pretty, and both lean on the hosts' shape.
Charlton vs Norwich. Norwich have lost the chance-quality battle in each of their last five games. They had the ball against Portsmouth but managed only a handful of shots inside the box, and they have not scored in two. Charlton's defensive record is a tale of two venues: the heavy shot totals came away from home, while at The Valley they have conceded once in four.
The matchup is Norwich's creative trio of Ben Slimane, Schwartau and Brooks against Charlton's deep block, with Skipp and Coventry screening in front. I expect Norwich to have plenty of the ball but to shoot from distance, while Charlton threaten from crosses for Leaburn, set plays and late substitutes. A low-event game with the draw at its centre is my picture. That's why I'm siding with Charlton not to lose.
Sheffield United vs Derby. Derby's long-term defensive injuries were already there when they held Stoke, so they are not the story. What's new is the midfield: captain Lewis Travis went off injured against Stoke and is out until the international break, and Alex Mowatt is touch-and-go. Derby's way of hurting teams starts with winning the ball in the middle, and that is the job Travis did.
Sheffield United get Choudhury, Bamford and Burrows back and will go long into Bamford and Cannon. In gusting wind that suits the direct side more than the passing side with a patched defence. Derby create little even with the ball, and Sheffield United showed at Bristol City that they can sit on a one-goal lead. I expect a scrappy game decided by a single goal from a midfield turnover or a second ball. That's why I'm backing Sheffield United to win it.
